Advance Estimates of National Income, 2006-07

Government of India’s Press Note

(New Delhi; February 7, 2007)

 

 

            The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the advance estimates of national income at constant (1999-2000) and current prices, for the financial year 2006-07. 

 

2.         These advance estimates are based on anticipated level of agricultural and industrial production, analysis of budget estimates of government expenditure and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance, available so far.  The advance estimates at current prices are derived by estimating the implicit price deflators (IPDs) at sectoral level from the relevant price indices.  The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

 

Estimates at Constant (1999-2000) Prices

 

Gross Domestic Product

 

3.         Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices in the year 2006-07 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 28,44,022 crore, as against the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2005-06 of Rs. 26,04,532 crore, released on 31st January 2007.  The growth in GDP during 2006-07 is estimated at 9.2 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 9.0 per cent during 2005-06.

 

4.         The growth rate of 9.2 per cent in GDP during 2006-07 has mainly been due to the growth rates of over 5 per cent in the sectors of ‘manufacturing’, ‘electricity, gas and water supply',  ‘construction’, 'trade, hotels, transport and communication', 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', and 'community, social and personal services'. 

 

Agriculture

 

5.         The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth rate of 2.7 per cent in its GDP during 2006-07, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 6.0 per cent.

 

Industry

 

6.         According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 3.8 per cent, 11.5 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively during April-November, 2006-07, as compared to the growth rates of 0.5 per cent, 9.4 per cent and 5.0 per cent in these sectors during April-November, 2005-06.  The construction sector is expected to show a growth rate of 9.4 per cent during 2006-07, mainly on account of growth in production of 10.2 per cent in cement and 8.6 per cent in steel during April-November 2006-07.

 

Services

 

7.         The estimated growth in GDP for the trade, hotels, transport and communication sectors during 2006-07 is placed at 13.0 per cent, mainly on account of a growth 10.1 per cent in Railway revenue earning freight traffic, 8.0 per cent in cargo handled at major ports, 34.1 per cent in the production of commercial vehicles,  28.1 per cent in passengers handled in civil aviation, 10.5 per cent in air cargo handled, and 52.0 per cent in stock of telephone connections, during April-November, 2006-07.  The sector,  'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', is expected to show a growth rate of 11.1 per cent during 2006-07, on account of 25.4 per cent growth in aggregate deposits and 34.1 per cent growth in bank credit during November 2004 to November 2005.  The growth rate of 'community, social and personal services' during 2006-07 is estimated to be 7.8 per cent.

 

National Income

 

8.         The net national product (NNP) at factor cost, also known as national income, at 1999-2000 prices is likely to be Rs. 25,15,372 crore during 2006-07, as against the previous year's Quick Estimate of Rs. 22,95,242 crore.  In terms of growth rates, the national income is expected to rise by 9.6 per cent during 2006-07 in comparison to the growth rate of 9.1 per cent in 2005-06.

 

Per Capita Income

 

9.         The per capita income in real terms (at 1999-2000 prices) during 2006-07 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 22,379 as  compared to  the Quick  Estimate for  the year  2005-06  of   Rs. 20,734.  The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 7.9 per cent during 2006-07, as against the previous year's estimate of 7.4 per cent.

 

Estimates at Current Prices

 

Gross Domestic Product 

 

10.       GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2006-07 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 37,17,465 crore, showing a growth rate of 14.4 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2005-06 of Rs. 32,50,932 crore.

 

National Income

 

11.       The NNP at factor cost at current prices is anticipated to be Rs.32,67,371 crore during 2006-07, as compared to Rs. 28,46,763 crore during 2005-06, showing a rise of 14.8 per cent.

 

Per Capita Income

 

12.       The per capita income at current prices during 2006-07 is estimated to be Rs. 29,069 as compared to Rs. 25,716 during 2005-06, showing a rise of 13.0 per cent.

 

13.       Estimates of gross/net national product, gross/net domestic product and per capita income alongwith GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity for the years 2005-06 and 2006-07 at constant (1999-2000) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.

 

STATEMENT 1: Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2006-07

(At 1999-2000 prices)

 

Item

2004-05

2005-06

(Quick Estimate)

2006-07 (Advance Estimate)

A.     ESTIMATES AT AGGREGATE LEVEL

 

 

 

  1. NATIONAL PRODUCT (Rs. Crore)

 

 

 

1.1   Gross national product (GNP) at

                    factor cost

23,67,711

25,80,761

(9.0)

28,22,145

(9.4)

1.2   Net national product (NNP) at

                   factor cost

 

21,03,350

22,95,243

(9.1)

25,15,372

(9.6)

  1. DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Rs. crore)

 

 

 

2.1   Gross domestic product (GDP) at

                    factor cost

              2.2  Gross domestic product (GDP) at

                    market prices

23,89,660

 

26,02,235

26,04,532

(9.0)

28,42,478

(9.2)

28,44,022

(9.2)

31,03,847

(9.2)

2.2   Net domestic product (NDP) at

                   factor cost

21,25,299

23,19,014

(9.1 )

25,37,249

(9.4)

 

B.     ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL

 

 

 

 

           Population (million)

 

 

1,090

 

 

1,107

(1.6)

 

1,124

(1.5)

           Per capita NNP at factor cost (Rs.)

19,297

20,734

(7.4)

22,379

(7.9)

Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year

 

 

STATEMENT 2: Advance Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity

(At 1999-2000 prices)                    Rs. Crore

 

Industry

2004-05

2005-06

(Quick Estimate)

2006-07 (Advance Estimate)

Percentage change over previous year

  2005-06     2006-07

1. agriculture, forestry & fishing

483080

512147

526127

6.0

2.7

2. mining & quarrying

52250

54128

56551

3.6

4.5

3. manufacturing

361115

393956

438440

9.1

11.3

4. electricity, gas & water supply

54531

57401

61817

5.3

7.7

5. construction

155431

177543

194184

14.2

9.4

6. trade, hotels, transport and  

    communication

616024

680237

768757

10.4

13.0

7. financing, insurance, real estate

    & business services

323187

358535

398503

10.9

11.1

8. community, social & personal

    services

344042

370584

399643

7.7

7.8

GDP at factor cost

2389660

2604532

2844022

9.0

9.2

 

STATEMENT 3: Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2006-07

(At current prices)

 

Item

2004-05

2005-06

(Quick Estimate)

2006-07 (Advance Estimate)

A.      ESTIMATES AT AGGREGATE LEVEL

 

 

 

        1.  NATIONAL PRODUCT (Rs. crore)

 

 

 

             1.1   Gross national product (GNP) at

                    factor cost

28,33,558

32,25,963

(13.8)

36,93,401

(14.5)

             1.2   Net national product (NNP) at

                    factor cost

25,01,067

28,46,762

(13.8)

32,67,371

(14.8)

        2.  DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Rs. crore)

 

 

 

             2.1  Gross domestic product (GDP) at

                    factor cost

             2.2  Gross domestic product (GDP) at

                    market prices

28,55,933

 

31,26,596

32,50,932

(13.8)

35,67,177

(14.1)

37,17,465

(14.4)

41,00,636

(15.0)

             2.3  Net domestic product (NDP) at

                    factor cost

25,23,442

28,71,731

(13.8)

32,91,435

(14.6)

 

B.   ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL

 

 

 

 

           Population (million)

 

 

1,090

 

 

1,107

(1.6)

 

1,124

(1.5)

           Per capita NNP at factor cost (Rs.)

22,946

25,716

(12.1)

29,069

(13.0)

Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year

 

 

STATEMENT 4: Advance Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity

(At current prices)                     Rs. Crore

 

Industry

2004-05

2005-06

(Quick Estimate)

2006-07 (Advance Estimate)

Percentage change over previous year

 2005-06      2006-07

1. agriculture, forestry & fishing

536629

595058

652403

10.9

9.6

2. mining & quarrying

84464

90482

104403

7.1

15.4

3. manufacturing

453603

519746

598079

14.6

15.1

4. electricity, gas & water supply

60607

65979

72755

8.9

10.3

5. construction

185669

222110

254952

19.6

14.8

6. trade, hotels, transport and

    communication

714547

824936

961783

15.4

16.6

7. financing, insurance, real estate

    & business services

413129

464493

540247

12.4

16.3

8. community, social & personal

    services

407285

468128

532843

14.9

13.8

GDP at factor cost

2855933

3250932

3717465

13.8

14.4

 

 

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